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Facilitator's Note, 11 November 2019: Phase 3 Instructions


Hi Everyone

Thanks very much for your contributions in Phase II of the TrustCoLab process. Over 50 of you voted on which of the driver groups were most important. We also received over 20 storylines that described how drivers might interact to create new future possibilities. 

In Phase III, we continue our process towards building scenarios for 2040. 

By way of context, scenarios are alternative pictures for what the future might look like. They are NOT predictions. We are always tempted to see a clear route to the future and state what we think will happen. But 20 years is a long time, so it's better to assume some uncertainty and ask “what might happen?”. To do this, we need to consider a range of outcomes for each of these driver groups.  

To make things as simple as possible, we’ve taken the 14 top driver groups (in terms of your votes) and described them as scenario axes. These axes show how each driver group contains some important element of uncertainty about the future. We illustrate this by describing two divergent outcomes (ends of axes) that could plausibly occur over the next twenty years. 

For example: one scenario axis refers to the global scope of healthcare. An important element of uncertainty is described as: Will globalization continue through 2040, leading to convergence of prices and standards, or will we see a break down in globalization, leading to greater national and regional differences?

In Phase III, please review the 14 scenario axes and comment on how we have described the uncertainty. Here are some prompt questions for you to consider when commenting:

  • Is this a legitimate and important uncertainty? 
  • Are both outcomes (ends of the axes) plausible over the next 20 years?  (note plausibility is not the same as probability)
  • Does either outcome (ends of the axes) mean different things for peoples' health, and for how we think about trust in healthcare? 
  • Can you think of a better way to frame or name any of the uncertainties? Or can you see an opportunity to connect or combine some axes together to create a new, more powerful uncertainty? 

After reviewing and commenting on any of the 14, please support (akin to a like in Facebook) those axes that you feel are most powerful and important in shaping peoples’ health, and that provide important implications for the future of trust in healthcare. As a guide, we’d like you to support no more than 4 axes, so that we get a general sense of prioritization. 

We will then use your inputs to select two axes and ‘cross’ them. This will give us a framework for some outline scenarios that we’ll develop further in Phase 4.

The deadline for Phase III submissions is Sunday Nov 17 at 11.59pm ET. 

As always, thanks very much for your contributions 

Best wishes,